Black Swan dynamics
Nassim Taleb’s book, “The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” is an articulate expose of the innately random nature of certain influential events. Its a scary thought to think – that random events rule the world – especially as an entrepreneur, but in reading this I am reminded of the naivete (and even arrogance) of assuming authority and attempting control. Black Swans (random events that effect change) are a pervasive feature of life. The more we try to forecast and predict (and, according to Nassim, especially if we do it wearing a tie) the further we get from reality. Its why we shouldn’t watch TV – or at least not the “news” – and its why, as an entrepreneur, I find myself constantly reminded of the need to develop a compass by which to navigate the world – risk management strategy for the soul, so to speak.
Strategic plans are important, so long as they are flexible. Business plans are also important, so long as they are understood for what they are (just a plan), but to be honest, I haven’t looked at mine since I launched my company almost three years ago. It seems to me that building a foundational layer of clear values and healthy relationships is a far more essential part of compass development, which in turn can hopefully help us to manage Black Swans – and maybe even see them as opportunities. I feel like this is something Whinnie the Pooh might say, but it seems the general rule is this:
“you will never end up exactly where you thought you were going to end up having followed the precise route you envisioned”.
Some might say that’s stating the obvious, but as an entrepreneur I frequently forget, only to be reminded later when I reach some point of frustration that I could have avoided (or at least didn’t need to experience with quite such intensity!). My compass is partly about people – close friends, mentors and colleagues – who form an essential layer of resilience and point of reference. Relationships are such a fascinating area to understand as a manager and company owner – especially when working in developing countries and regions beyond your country (and culture of origin). All great stuff to “unpack” in future reflections on entrepreneurship.
It seems to me that greater our ability to intelligently respond to new and shifting market trends and previously unpredicted events the greater our potential for sustainable growth. Considering how one does this catapults me into thoughts about holism, yoga, intuition and love, which are hardly the words on the tip of the tongue of most entrepreneurs – at least not when they’re in the office! I’m exploring all of this daily at the Odyssey Institute and look forward to sharing our mistakes, learning and current practices.
